Notes from a Lecture on Iran’s Strategy and the Shifting Balance of Power in the Middle East

This morning, I attended a topical and fascinating Zoom lecture about Iran’s geopolitical strategy and the shifting balance of power in the Middle East. The lecturer was Ido Freund, an expert in the Arabic language, a Middle East intelligence analyst, and a trust & safety strategist. He has an extensive background as a researcher of the Middle East and Islam. I took a ton of notes during the talk. The following is a paraphrased summary of the main ideas that were discussed. I hope you find this helpful, as I included many details that you will not easily come by in a typical news report.

Ideological Foundations of the Iranian Regime

The lecture began with the ideological worldview of Iran’s leadership. According to the speaker, understanding Iran’s strategy requires understanding how the regime views Jews, the West, and global politics more broadly.

One reference point mentioned was a book written by Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei, which outlines a worldview deeply opposed to Jews and what the regime describes as Western imperial powers, particularly the United States and the United Kingdom. The lecturer explained that Iran’s leadership draws heavily on religious interpretations, including ideas connected to the life of the Prophet Muhammad, and uses these frameworks to shape political strategy.

The Iranian Constitution reflects this ideology and interprets it into specific actions that also reflect the state's purpose with the intentions of not just keeping the country safe, but also keeping the world safe by extending the rule of Islam.

The constitution emphasizes:

• Eliminating imperialism (Article 3.5)

• Expanding Islamic unity and brotherhood (Article 3.15)

• Supporting oppressed populations (referred to as mustad’afun) (Article 3.16)

The concept mustad’afun is relatable to proletariat,which helps explain why Iran has occasionally found alignment with certain communist or Marxist governments.

Iran's ideological mission is evident in the title of its primary military branch, called the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rather than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.

Military Structure and Proxy Strategy

Whereas the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is the primary military branch, alongside it is the Basij, a civilian militia used primarily to quell rebellion and enforce domestic regime control.

Iran’s regional strategy relies heavily on proxy groups. These groups are often relatively poor organizations that depend heavily on Iranian funding and technology. Because of this dependence, Iran can arm them, provide training, and give them access to weapons systems while still allowing them some degree of operational autonomy.

Iran's military funding has grown significantly over the years. According to the lecture, at one point, about 20% to 30% of Iran’s national budget went toward the military, but it's suggested that the figure is now closer to 50%.

The War and the Decline of Iran’s Proxies

On October 7, 2023, Hamas entered into war with Israel. Hezbollah joined shortly after, providing additional rocket launches at Israel, but with limited force. The Houthis in Yemen also joined the conflict (you will recall their frequent attacks in the past years). However, Hezbollah and the Houthis suffered severely as a result of Israel's retaliations.

Meanwhile, the situation in Syria shifted as rebel groups gained ground and weakened Iranian influence there. Over time, Iran's capabilities via proxies have declined.

Damage to Iran’s Military Infrastructure

During the 12-Day War in June 2025, Israel and the US went to war with Iran, resulting in the destruction of most of its nuclear sites, drone fleets, and air defenses. Iran was weakened, and by the mercy of the US ordering Israel to stop the attacks, the war ended.

Iran was weakened, but spared from further war, which meant it was time to recalculate and come up with another strategy: to build a better missile arsenal and do what they could to preserve as much of its nuclear program as possible while buying themselves time to strengthen and weaponize the program.

According to the speaker, who quoted data from the IDF, US officials, the Arms Control Association (ACA), the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), and the Alma Center, Iran had added an additional 1,500 missiles since the 12-Day War (about 2,500 total), and their production was estimated to be 100 to 300 per month, depending on estimates by Israel or the US.

UAV (unmanned aerial vehicles) and drone fleets had been rebuilt to a number of nearly 5,000, though the numbers have reduced as a result of Russia using these in their war against Ukraine.

According to the lecture, this stockpile mentioned here is one of the main reasons why the US and Israel attacked.

The Nuclear Program

The second reason quoted for attacking Iran is its nuclear program. It had suffered significant damage during the strikes of the last war, but they had enough enriched material to create a weapon, despite not yet having the capability to actually use the material. The intention was to buy themselves enough time with the weapons mentioned previously to achieve this goal.

Strategic Timing of the Attacks

Timing played an integral role in this war. The lecturer referred to the quote, "Short-term pain for long-term goal" to explain the calculated risk of attacking Iran now, while their missile capabilities were still developing (lower than they'll be in the future), and while the IRGC itself is weak. "It will be harder to do this in the future if it's not done now," he said.

February 28th was the beginning of an operation focused on “decapitating” the leadership of the IRGC and the Iranian military. Many senior commanders were killed.

Strikes also targeted:

• Nuclear facilities

• Air defense systems

• Undisclosed weaponization facilities involved in turning uranium into usable weapons

It is still unknown if enriched uranium material remains underground in Iran, but Iranian officials have referenced them in negotiations, threatening that they can still use them.

Another concern was Iran's ability to control the Straits of Hormuz, through which much of the world's oil supply is moved and which is also a great channel (no, strait) for world trade.

Pressure on Gulf Countries

Iran’s retaliation strategy included two main approaches.

First, Iran responded directly to Israeli strikes with missile attacks, hoping to apply enough pressure to Israeli civilians that Israeli leadership would thereby be pressured to stop the strikes.

Second, Iran focused on countries in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), including:

• Bahrain

• Saudi Arabia

• Qatar

• United Arab Emirates

• Oman

These countries depend heavily on oil exports, and the global economy relies on their energy supply. Additionally, they have fewer air defenses. Iran’s idea was that attacks on these states might push them to pressure the United States, and indirectly Israel, to halt the war so that the IRGC could survive.

If energy markets were severely disrupted, oil prices could potentially reach $150 to $200 per barrel, which would significantly damage the global economy.

However, the lecturer argued that global markets were better prepared than Iran anticipated. Saudi Arabia had increased oil production roughly a month earlier, ensuring a sufficient supply.

Closing the Strait of Hormuz would also hurt Iran itself, because Iranian oil exports to China depend on the same route. Losing those exports costs Iran billions of dollars per week.

Possible Future Scenarios in Iran

No one can be certain about the future Iran. One possibility is that the government eventually agrees to a deal or accepts a ceasefire under pressure, similar to the decision that ended the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, during which hunger and strife pressured Ruhollah Khomeini to essentially say, "Enough is enough."

Another possibility is internal unrest. Iran is a highly diverse country with several marginalized ethnic groups concentrated in specific regions, including the Kurds and the Baloch people.

CIA [2004] (https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2013/sep/03/iran-minorities-2-ethnic-diversity)

The militant terrorist group, Jaish al‑Adl, has gone against the regime in the past, and it is possible they may be involved in more fighting or uprising. Add to this the fact that there have been large-scale protests and uprisings against the regime this year amongst the entire population, especially in cities. With this in mind, the US and Israel target the IRGC and the Basij.

The speaker approached a third possibility of "a regime change or a regime changed," suggesting that as major figures are assassinated, it is difficult to determine who will become the main figure at the head of Iran. There are many factions at play in the country, and though many of them are not moderate, perhaps one of them would be able to change, or may be pressured to change by their own population, over time. Many protestors previously expressed hope for the shah to return. There is no way to know right now what will happen. Regardless, Israel and the US are trying to cripple the regime enough so that if it does stay in power, it will be lacking capabilities for decades to come and will thereby lose their foothold in the Middle East.

Internal Issues Facing Iran

Even if the regime survives the conflict, the country faces major problems:

• A severe water crisis

• Electricity shortages

• Economic collapse

• Diplomatic isolation (as a result of their recent attacks on the GCC)

  
  

Regional and Global Implications

There are many geopolitical ripple effects possible ahead.

China

China has been one of the main buyers of Iranian oil, through indirect or smuggled routes due to sanctions. These purchases are conducted with yuan currency, allowing China to obtain oil at lower prices. If Iran’s exports collapse, this would be a huge economic hit for China, which would have to purchase oil at the normal market price.

The competition between China and the US has been evident, with China vying to itself as a dominant player in Asia and the world. Imagining a situation in which Iran's relations with the US become friendlier would mean imagining China losing footing in the Middle Eastern region.

Russia

Russia has relied on Iranian drone technology, a supply that has been depleting, and maintains economic ties with Iran, which may be damaged if they lose Iran as a purchaser of Russian weapons and goods.

How does China factor into this? As a member of the "Axis of Upheavel," or CRINK, Russia may be watching Iran's war and noticing the lack of assistance from China. Russia may wonder if they will really get any assistance in a similar situation, which would certainly hurt their morale and weaken the Axis.

Turkey and Iraq

Turkey and Iraq are concerned about Kurdish movements that span multiple countries. Kurds live across southeastern Turkey, northern Iraq, northeastern Syria, and northwestern Iran. Any regional instability could encourage Kurdish nationalist movements. Turkey also fears a potential refugee crisis if Iran becomes unstable.

In Iraq, where the government is majority Shia (who were oppressed by Hussein's regime), the concern is losing power and Iran's funding. There is a possibility of civil war here, between the Shia, Sunnis, and Kurds, depending on their stances toward Iran.

Qatar

Qatar has played a major diplomatic role as a mediator in regional conflicts in the Middle East. With Iran out of the picture, this influence would become much less important.

Qatar is also the world’s largest exporter of liquefied natural gas. It shares a major offshore gas field with Iran, but sanctions have prevented Iran from fully developing its side. If sanctions were lifted, Iran could compete more directly for gas production from that field.

Egypt

Egypt faces economic challenges linked to instability around the Suez Canal. Attacks and piracy near the Gulf of Aden have already reduced shipping traffic, costing Egypt billions per year in lost revenue.

The Role of the United States and Israel

Operation Roaring Lion/Epic Fury are a totally different ballgame than the 12-Day War. So far, the US and Israel are presenting much stronger capabilities than before while attacking more diverse assets than just Iran's nuclear program. They approached this conflict with increased firepower, more equipment, and a focus on assassinations of the IRGC leadership (a modern-day guillotine for the Iranian Octopus).

Following this war, Iran will find it very difficult to recuperate, in addition to the internal issues mentioned above of being in crises of water, electricity, economic burden, diplomatic isolation, and political strife and protests. Additionally, with their ports closed, it will be difficult to function as a country while lacking everyday goods, such as food.

Outlook

It is impossible to know how long this war will last, despite the ongoing speculations given by analysts and experts. The hope, especially here in Israel by us sleepless citizens, is that Iran will lose its capability to fire missiles. Life must be taken day by day right now. The future of the Middle East is as uncertain and complex as ever, but one thing we can say for sure is that we are living through history (biblical history, it feels like), and it will be quite a story to pass down to our children.